Neil Wilby Media

The general election is just a few days away and betting on the results is still a dominant feature in the news, and also taking up police time, where the wagers are alleged to have been as a result of alleged ‘inside knowledge’.

Despite repeated claims by independent candidates, and their supporters, that there will be a general election upset in at least one of the two Parliamentary constituencies in Oldham, one of the country’s leading bookmakers, Bet365, says differently.

In Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton, Jim McMahon is defending a majority of 11,127 having held the seat since December, 2015. The betting firm calculate that he is 96% certain to top the poll.

In 2019, the total electorate was 72,999 and turnout was 60.9%. The Gaza issue is likely to keep the turnout relatively high and the Muslim vote, which McMahon has successfully harvested in the past, is expected to be heaped, in part at least, upon the two pro-Gaza independents, Zaffar Iqbal and Tony Wilson. The other independent candidate, Tameside-based conspiracy theorist, Raja Miah, is not expected to make any significant impact at the polls despite a noisy and unpleasant social media campaign which features his long-running vendetta against the Labour candidate and repeated on-line attacks on his fellow independent Mr Iqbal and The Oldham Group who back him.

The constituency comprises these Borough Council wards: Chadderton Central, Chadderton North, Chadderton South, Coldhurst, Hollinwood, Medlock Vale, Royton North, Royton South, and Werneth.

In Oldham East and Saddleworth, the bookmakers rate the chances of Debbie Abrahams retaining her seat at 93.25%, defending a majority of only 1,499.

She faces seven other candidates, but the men with the bulging satchels are probably counting on the largely unknown Conservative Party candidate, Tom Fish, suffering from the backlash against what is widely regarded as the worst government ever. Criminal lawyer, Tom Lord, stood for them in the 2019 general election and almost unseated Ms Abrahams.The rest of the candidates are headed by a surging Reform UK and George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain. They are represented by Jacob Barden and Shanaz Saddique respectively. The now defunct Brexit Party finished third in 2019 and their votes are likely to be mopped up by Reform

The Oldham East and Saddleworth constituency comprises the Borough Council wards of Alexandra, Crompton, St James’, St Mary’s, Saddleworth North, Saddleworth South, Saddleworth West and Lees, Shaw, and Waterhead.

This constituency is the largest, by area, in the Greater Manchester Region. For additional context, these are the results from the Mayoral elections held on May 2nd, 2024:

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Page last updated: Sunday 30th June, 2024 at 1335 hours

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Picture credit: Bet365

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