Neil Wilby Media

On the eve of the Oldham Council local elections in May 2021, the ruling Labour Party appeared to have an iron grip on the Borough’s administration. 45 of its 60 councillors wore the red rosette led by the youngest ever Council Leader in the country, Sean Fielding.

By the time the votes were counted after the ‘all-out’ elections in 2023, the number of Labour councillors was down to 32 and the Party, and the Council, had seen its third Leader ousted in successive years.

This political catastrophe, of course, runs against every regional and national trend. The Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester won in every ward in Oldham in 2021 and, over the succeeding three years, the excesses and failings of the present Conservative government, by common consent the worst in history, has seen Labour surge in the national polls to record highs.

On 2nd May 2024, Oldham’s electorate go to the polls to vote not only for their choice of local ward representative, but to decide whether Andy Burnham is re-elected as Mayor.

The final list of candidates’ nominations for Borough election was posted yesterday afternoon (Friday 5th April, 2024) on the Oldham Council website by the Returning Officer, Harry Catherall (read in full here).

Just before the nominations closed, two Labour councillors, Cllr Shoab Akthar and Cllr Nyla Ibrahim, announced that they were leaving the Party. The latter now defending her Werneth seat as an independent candidate with Labour not appearing on the ballot paper in what has always been regarded as one of their strongholds (read more here).

In January 2024, Oldham Labour re-admitted to their group the previously independent councillor, Aftab Hussain (St Mary’s), in controversial circumstances (read more here), to take their number of elected Members to 33 and, they believed, relative safety in terms of retaining control of the council.

Following, the defections of Cllrs Ibrahim and Akthar the number is now, of course, just 31. Meaning a nett loss of a further 2 seats will plunge Oldham Council into a state of no overall control.  

In his pre-election analysis of candidates’ prospects in 2023 the author of this article, Neil Wilby, predicted the correct number of seats, a nett loss of three, although not quite so accurate in how it came about, ward by ward.

This year, the predicted total is 27 councillors will be wearing Labour’s colours after the last vote is counted on 3rd May, 2024. A nett loss of five.

Labour would have been defending seats in 12 of the 20 wards, prior to the switch by Cllr Ibrahim. Two of their councillors are retiring; Past Mayor, Cllr Jenny Harrison (Alexandra) and Cllr Paul Fryer (Failsworth West).

This is how the final, predicted figure is derived:

Labour Gains: Failsworth East, Hollinwood (+2)

In Failsworth East, guerrilla warfare between the two local, independent factions is likely to let in Labour’s Ken Rustidge. 

Hollinwood has been targeted by Labour and a hand-picked candidate. Dr Naseem Aslam, may just scrape home from The Oldham Group incumbent, Cllr Muhammad Irfan.

Labour Holds: Chadderton South, Failsworth West.

Chadderton South, scene of the ousting of Labour Leader, Cllr Arooj Shah, in 2022 is unlikely to see much of a shock this year and rookie, Cllr Holly Harrison, whom re-took the previously safe Labour seat last year, is expected to hold onto it.

In Failsworth West, the same guerrilla warfare between the same two local, independent factions is likely to let in Kyle Phythian, office manager for Jim McMahon MP, and a former councillor. 

Labour Losses: Alexandra, Coldhurst, Medlock Vale, Werneth (-4)

The Gaza issue will dominate the wards where there are heavy contingents of Muslim voters, whom traditionally turn out in large numbers at election time. Pro-ceasefire The Oldham Group (TOG), aided by some of the smartest election operators in the Borough, may well sweep the board in these four polls.

Labour Marginals: Chadderton North, Chadderton Central, Royton South, St James, Waterhead (perm any 2 losses from 5). 

Chadderton North and St James are both wards where Save Our Green Belt campaigners will play a significant part in the election outcomes (read more here).

In Chadderton Central, Deputy Leader, Cllr Elaine Taylor, faces seven opponents, three of them independents. This might be the one shock result that seems to happen at every Oldham election.

Royton South has, in the recent past, been targeted by a group of Mossley-based conspiracy theorists whom, appositely, self-style as The Rabble. They claim, with some justification, to have ousted the Labour Leader, Amanda Chadderton, last year, aided by an ugly smear campaign. They are targeting Cllr Steve Bashforth this year, aided by two local Conservative councillors (also Rabble members) who have not fielded a candidate – aiming to leave the field clear for an independent candidate to take the seat.

The Oldham Group is confident they will take the Waterhead seat. They were similarly upbeat about winning at least one seat in Hollinwood last year – and took all three. Popular, hard-working incumbent, Cllr Ros Birch, and definitely one of Labour’s brightest and most effective elected Members, will present a stern challenge.

Wild Card: St Mary’s and Royton North

St Mary’s, of course, is the ward that encompasses Oldham’s Muslim heartland, Glodwick. The leading players in #TeamArooj, which swept Cllr Shah back to power last year, are now aligned with The Oldham Group. TOG field a candidate, Aisha Kauser, whom last year was a protegé of the then independent and aforementioned Cllr Aftab Hussain. She ran Labour councillor Ali Aqeel Salamat respectably close last year. If the reader has followed all that, then it is, perhaps, clearer why this is one ward in which, literally, anything could happen. Particularly, as it is said locally that Cllr Salamat’s allegiance to Oldham Labour might be a little more fluid than its Leader would welcome.

Royton North has been added to the wild cards since this article was first published: Two scandals that affect Cllr Lewis Quigg, who is hoping to retain his Conservative Party seat, and the other two ward councillors, the man and wife team of Cllr Dave Arnott and Cllr Christine Adams. Once the exclusive Neil Wilby Media article is published within the next couple of days, the whole complexion of the campaign changes. Cllr Arnott, in particular, is facing calls to resign over what is, on any independent view, shocking conduct (read more here). Former councillor, Clint Phythian, is contesting the seat for Labour and he may well be a beneficiary from the public interest reporting of these misdemeanours.

Whichever way those predictions fall, and they are no higher than the informed guesses of one who has reported on the local political scene for the past four years, Oldham will certainly come under regional and national media scrutiny on election night. Not least, after the votes are counted and the new political composition of the Council is settled, one, or maybe two more, Labour councillors may defect from their Party. 

Page last updated: Sunday 7th April, 2024 at 12h25 

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Picture credit: Charlotte Green – Oldham Times

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